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Seeking Alpha "Seeking Alpha predicted stock returns... Home | My Portfolio | Breaking News | Latest Articles | StockTalk | ALERTS | PRO This article was sent to 114 people who get email alerts on .Which cover: new articles | breaking news | earnings results | dividend announcementsGet email alerts on »This article was sent to 450,950 people who get the Investing Ideas newsletter. (You’ll be notified by email with new articles from your favorite authors. Parex Resources - Plenty Of Catalysts Coupled With Higher Crude Prices Offer 60%+ More Upside Apr. Massive potential production and reserves growth. High exploration and development drilling success rate coupled with an established presence in known productive oil basins bodes well for further oil discoveries. Brent indexed price creates higher netbacks per barrel (margins) boosting the profitability of oil and liquids production. Overblown market perception of country risk in Colombia sees Parex trading at a significant discount to its NAV. Canadian domiciled small-cap O&G explorer and producer Parex Resources (PARXF), which operates in predominantly in Colombia continues to perform strongly. When I last wrote on the company is in October 2013, I found it was under-valued, offering investors potential upside of 55%, with a price target of $8.87 per share. Since then Parex's share price has shot up almost 50%, and is close to hitting the price target set in that article. However, since then a range of catalysts have emerged that will continue to boost Parex's operational performance, indicating there is significantly more upside available to investors. In this article I will highlight why the company offers investors considerable potential upside in excess of the price target determined in my previous article. For the fourth quarter 2013, Parex's oil and gas production grew strongly 7% QoQ and 40% YoY to 17,287 gross (15,299 net) BOE daily, giving full year production of 15,854 gross or 14,031 net BOE daily. This continues Parex's history of strong production growth as shown in the chart below, with company's production having a CAGR of 168% since commercially viable production commenced in late 2010. Source: Company Presentation. As the chart also highlights this spectacular rate of production growth will continue into 2014, with Parex estimating 2014 calendar year production of 17,500 to 18,500 gross or 14,875 to 15,725 BOEPD. Gross 2014 forecast production represents a 15% to 17% increase over 2013 gross daily production. This production is primarily made up of crude liquids (light and medium oil) with the sale price benchmarked to Brent, which trades at significant premium to West Texas Intermediate. I believe this production guidance is achievable, with Parex planning capital expenditure of $250 million for 2014, a healthy 6.9% increase over 2013. The company has also signaled if exploration and drilling results merit further appraisal it will boost its capital budget by $30 million giving total 2014 capex of $280 million, a 20% increase over 2013. This capex will be allocated to drilling 15 gross (10 net) development wells and 19 gross (12 net) exploration wells in proven plays, with a further 3 gross (2 net) wells to be drilled in emerging new concept plays. For the fourth quarter 2013 Parex reported an operational netback per barrel of $60.78, a decrease of 12% QoQ, while its 2013 full year netback fell 15% YoY to $62.70 per barrel. But despite this decrease, primarily attributable to softer crude (Brent) prices coupled with higher royalties and operational costs, Parex is still able to generate a solid netback per barrel. This netback is superior to the majority of Parex's peers and in particular those peers operating in North American, as the chart highlights. Source: Company filings. It is only fellow Colombian operator Gran Tierra Energy (GTE), which is generating a higher netback per barrel and like Parex, Gran Tierra's sale price per barrel is indexed to Brent. The key reason for Gran Tierra achieving a higher netback is because of the company's significantly lower operating costs per barrel, which can be attributed to the maturity of its operations. Parex is able to generate a superior netback compared to its peers operating in Canada including Penn West Petroleum (PWE), Lightstream Resources (OTCPK:LSTMF) and Surge Energy (ZPTAF). This because they are operating in jurisdictions with higher royalties and operational costs and more importantly have their sale price per barrel is indexed to WTI. As the chart highlights Brent has traded at a clear premium to WTI since 2011, but this premium has narrowed over recent months to 6%, since hitting a 5 month high in November 2013 of 15%. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. As a result of this premium Parex is able to generate a higher netback per barrel produced thereby providing significantly higher margins, cash flow and ultimately profitability. This is a distinct advantage for Parex and Gran Tierra over their North American peers, which find their prices benchmarked to WTI and in many cases trading at a discount to WTI. The primary Canadian light crude blend Edmonton Par currently trades at around an 11% discount to WTI, further narrowing the netback per barrel for Canada's light oil producers. An average Brent price of $100 per barrel over the course of 2014. Royalties are expected to increase to from 11.5% to 15% of total sales. Combine transportation and production costs are expected to average between $27 and $30 per barrel over the course of the year. I have assumed the worst case scenario and used $30 per barrel to calculate the forecast netback. As the chart below shows this gives an average 2014 operating netback of $55 per barrel. Source: Company Filings. This forecast netback is 11.5% lower than the 2013 netback of $62. the average annual royalty rate for 2014 is expected to increase to 15%, which is 3. combined production and transportation costs are expected to be 7% higher than 2013. But this still represents a solid netback which is well above the netback generated by its peers operating in North America. When coupled with a 15% increase production should see Parex still grow operating cash flow in comparison to 2013. Parex continues to generate strong cash flows and this is evident in its 2013 full year results. For the full year 2013 Parex increased cash flow by a healthy 12% in comparison to 2012, despite a 15% lower netback per barrel and a 4.6% lower average realized sale price per BOE YoY. This healthy growth in cash flow was driven primarily by a massive 39% increase in production. More impressively 2013 was the third successive year where cash flow continued to grow as the chart shows. Source: Company Presentation. This strong cash flow growth has seen Parex turn a significant corner marking a noteworthy achievement with the company's exploration and development plans now effectively being self funding. Reducing the need for the company to increase its debt and level of leverage or dilute existing shareholders through an equity offering to raise capital to sustain exploration and asset development. A forecast 15% to 17% increase in production. Oil prices remaining indexed to Brent, allowing Parex to generate a higher margin than if they were benchmarked to WTI. This is because it is expected Brent will continue to trade at a premium to WTI for the foreseeable future. Higher oil prices with the price for Brent futures due between June 2014 and December 2015 trading at an average of $102 per barrel for that period. As a result 2014 operating cash flow is forecast to grow by around 6% in comparison to 2013, to approximately $285 million. Over the foreseeable future this cash flow will continue to grow primarily because of higher netbacks and further reserves and production growth. A key part of Parex's future success lies in its ability to fund its exploration development program from operating cash flow and its existing working capital. Despite 2014 capital expenditure of $250 million being 6.9% higher than 2013 I expect Parex to be able to fund this capex from cash flow. This is because despite a lower average realized sale price per BOE, rising royalties and operating costs Parex is still generating a healthy netback of $55 per barrel. This netback could rise to as high as $58 per barrel if 2014 operating costs come in at the lower end of guidance. When coupled with the lower end of production guidance of 17,500 gross BOE daily, being 10% higher than 2013 gross daily production Parex should be able to easily fund those capex requirements from cash flow. It has also seen Parex advise the market 2014 capex of $250 million will be self funded from cash flow and may be increased by $30 million to $280 million, if the new play concepts merit appraisal drilling and production facilities. As such boding well for Parex to enter 2015 with a working capital surplus and continue self-funding the capital expenditure required to maintain its exploration and development program so as to build a sustainable production base. All of which bodes particularly well for the company to increase its working capital and enter 2015 with a working capital surplus. Parex over a particularly short time has demonstrated an ability to significantly grow its oil reserves. As at 31 December 2013, Parex had 1P reserves net after royalties of 17.4 million BOE and 2P reserves NAR of 26.8 million BOE. In comparison to 31 December 2012, both Parex's 1P and 2P NAR reserves had just over doubled in value, giving it an impressive CAGR of 55% for 2P reserves since 2010. At the forecast rate of production for 2014, Parex has a reserve life of around 6 years, which is of some concern. But I expect reserves to continue to grow at similar rate to which they have grown historically. This is because the company is diligently focused on growing reserves through the exploration and development its high quality conventional oil acreage in the Llanos Basin. Parex also continues to acquire additional acreage in Colombia in proven oil producing basins. The most recent being its move to diversify its asset base by acquiring a range of unconventional assets in the Llanos and Middle Magdalena basins. Both of these basins have proven production and considerable oil resources in place, which when coupled with a growing internally funded capital program bodes well for further reserves increases. Parex has acquired a substantial acreage base with over 2 million gross acres located in Colombia. The acreage sits across the sub-Andean basins hydrocarbon trend, which is believed to be one of the richest hydrocarbon trends in the world. The trend runs from Trinidad, through Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru as illustrated by the chart, and is estimated to have proven reserves of 48 billion barrels of oil. Source: Pacific Rubiales Presentation. The Colombian hydrocarbon regulator (ANH) estimates the trend holds 30 to 70 billion barrels of prospective oil resources in Colombia alone. Parex holds 19 blocks in the trend in Colombia's Llanos and Middle Magdalena Basins, the details of which are set out below. Source: Company presentation. This considerable resources base is set to deliver some spectacular results for Parex, particularly with all of its exploration, development and producing assets located in the sub-Andean hydrocarbon trend. The likelihood of the success of Parex's exploration and development program is highlighted by its enviable drilling success rate in 2013 of 83%, from a total of 37 gross wells drilled. This is lower than Canacol Energy's (OTCQX:CNNEF) 2013 success rate of 100% but higher than Pacific Rubiales (OTCPK:PEGFF) success rate of 68%. It is likely that Parex will be able to repeat this success in 2014 with it planning to drill 22 gross (14 net) exploration wells with the majority (86%) focused on proven plays in the Llanos basin. The remainder are being drilled to appraise the company's new concept plays in the Middle Magdalena and Llanos Basins. The Llanos basin is located in Eastern Colombia and is the key oil producing basin in the country. It forms part of the sub-Andean basin hydrocarbon trend and is estimated by the ANH to hold somewhere between 4.5 billion and 41 billion barrels of crude. The basin contains 3 main oil bearing stratas, being the Mirador, Baroc and Guadalupe formations, illustrated in the chart of the Llanos basin's geological structure below. Source: The Geological Society of America. The average gravity of the oil produced in the Llanos basin ranges between 29° and 38° API, with the basin responsible for the majority of Colombia's light and medium crude production. Light crude from the Llanos basin is typically used to make the Colombian Vasconia blend and is also an important diluent used to make heavy oil sufficiently liquid to allow transportation by pipeline in Colombia. The majority of Parex's exploration and production assets totaling 16 blocks are located in Llanos basin as the chart below illustrates, where it produces light and medium crude. Source: Company presentation. The company's key exploration and development assets in the Llanos basin are blocks LLA-26, LLA-30, LLA-32, LLA-34, Cabrestero, El Eden, Cebuacan and Los Ocarros highlighted in the chart below. Source: Company presentation. From an exploration perspective blocks LLA-26, Cebucan, LLA-34 and Cabrestero are in the late stages of the exploration lifecycle and approaching exploitation and production. Over the course of 2013, Parex made a number of oil discoveries in the Llanos basin. Both the Tigana-1 and Tigana Sur-1 exploratory wells located in block LLA-34 block encountered potential oil in the upper Mirador, lower Mirador and Guadalupe formations. For 2014 Parex is targeting the drilling of 9 exploration wells on blocks LLA-26, LLA-40, LLA-57 and Cebucan. There are also 2 wells on the Cabrestero block being appraised and prepared for testing and a well being drilled on the LLA-34 block. Another of Parex's initiatives is to expand into unconventional oil plays in Colombia and the Middle Magdalena basin is fast shaping up as one of the hottest unconventional plays in South America. The basis is increasingly being known as Colombia's shale oil sweet spot and is located in central Colombia and highlighted in pink on the map. Source: ANH. The basin has been producing conventional oil since the 1920s, with discovered reserves of 1.9 billion barrels of shallow conventional oil, accounting for 14% of Colombia's total production. It is estimated by the ANH the basin has 79 billion barrels of unconventional Undiscovered Petroleum Initially In Place (UPIIP). The stratigraphic make-up of the Middle Magdalena Valley is highly conducive to the presence of hydrocarbons and is illustrated in the chart below. Source: Dept of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University. Parex is a late arriver to this play, with Canacol having snapped up the majority of the higher quality unconventional acreage in the basin. But this has not deterred Parex which has secured 2 blocks in the basin, VMM-11 and Morpho as shown below. Source: Company presentation. Block VMM-11 is being explored for cold heavy oil production and Parex holds a 60% interest in the block and is the operator. The remaining 40% non-operated interest is held by Pacific Rubiales. Oil has already been discovered in the Morpho Block and this discovery is producing 90 BOE daily with an API of 38° (light crude). Parex has a 100% operating interest in the block and is targeting the development of unconventional light tight oil in the block. In summary Parex's high drilling success rate coupled with quality exploration assets located in known and producing oil basins in one of the world's largest hydrocarbon trends bodes well for ongoing drilling success in 2014 and beyond. As such I expect to see Parex make further discoveries during 2014, which will further boost its reserves, increasing the underlying value of its assets as well as extending the economic life of those reserves. Parex's 2P reserves of 26.8 million BOE NAR as at 31 December 2013 have a NAV of $1.1 billion, which with 109 million common shares issued gives it a 2P NAV of $10.09 per share. With Parex trading at around $8.53 per share at the time of writing this represents a premium of around 18%, making Parex an attractive long-term play for investors based solely on the value of its underlying oil assets. But typically, E&P companies trade at a discount to their 2P NAVs because it represents the perceived risk of these assets being developed and commencing commercially viable production. In the case of Parex this discount can also be attributed to the markets overblown sense of country risk associated with investing in Latam and Colombia in particular. With the Colombian government currently engaged in fruitful peace negotiations with the FARC and a steadily improving security situation coupled with an operating environment conducive to foreign investment much of this country risk is mitigated. As this is recognized by the market this discount will narrow but as I will demonstrate, Parex is also undervalued by the market on the basis of its key valuation metrics and cash flow from production. Despite the solid share price appreciation over the last year, Parex appears attractively priced on a range of key industry specific valuation metrics. This includes an enterprise-value of a mere 3 times EBITDA and an enterprise-value-to-BOEPD of $63,800. All of which compares favorably to its peers operating in Colombia and North America as the chart shows. Parex's EV of 3 times EBITDA is equal to Gran Tierra's and is the lowest among its peers. Like Gran Tierra, Parex's average realized oil price per barrel is indexed to Brent allowing it to generate higher revenue than those peers with their sale price indexed to WTI. This is allowing both Parex and Gran Tierra to generate solid margins and operational profitability, which has yet to be recognized by the market. Parex also has one of the lowest EV-to-BOEPD ratios at $63,800 and this is only marginally higher than Canacol's $62,400 which is the lowest of its peers. Perhaps more importantly for investors is Parex has a low degree of leverage with net debt of 0.7 times cash flow, which one of the lowest ratios among its peers. It is also significantly lower than its peers operating in North America, where companies such as Lightstream and Penn West found themselves overleveraged because of their addiction to debt. This debt was used to fund the acquisition and development of marginal assets as well as maintain unsustainable dividend yields. Overall, Parex's current position in comparison to those companies highlights the benefit of a focused and disciplined approach to asset acquisitions and capital expenditure for the development of those assets. Furthermore, it is clear from these valuation metrics, that Parex is significantly undervalued by the market particularly in comparison to the majority of its peers, especially those operating in North America. But to gain a better feel for Parex's indicative fair value per share I have used an industry standard deterministic DCF valuation methodology. This essentially calculates an O&G E&P company's fair value per share by determining the future value of cash flows derived from the production of its oil reserves at a particularly point in time. It is typically set over a predetermined period, which is typically either 10 years or the economic life of the company's reserves. This is then used with a series of assumptions to calculate total annual cash flows, which are then discounted by 10% to obtain a net-present-value. When calculating Parex's indicative fair value per share using the DCF methodology I have used the assumptions set out in the chart below and have not applied a terminal value as per a traditional DCF model. This conservative valuation yields an NPV-10 of $1.7 billion or 1.6 times Parex's current enterprise-value of $949 million. When net debt of $179 million is deducted it leaves an implied market-cap of $1.5 billion, valuing Parex at $14.01 per share as shown by the chart. At the time of writing Parex is trading at $8.53 per share again highlighting the company is significantly undervalued and offers considerable potential upside of 64%. When the relatively conservative assumptions used are taken into account, it highlights the considerable margin of safety built into this valuation. I expect this potential upside to play-out over the next year as a range of short-term catalysts gain traction and boost Parex's operational performance. Investors should note Parex trades as a liquid listing the Toronto Stock Exchange under the stock code PXT.TO with an average daily trading volume of ~$2 million CAD. Continued production growth: As the production growth chart earlier in the article shows, Parex continues to grow production and/or meet production guidance for the last 5 quarters gaining the market's confidence. If current calendar 2014 guidance is achieved or exceeded and Brent prices remain stable, the shares are almost certain to be bid higher for a 30% to 40% gain. Brent Pricing: With Parex's sale price indexed to Brent it is able to take full advantage of the premium which Brent trades at over WTI. This allows the company to continue generating a solid netback per barrel, which is superior to the majority of its peers, further boosting margins and growing cash flow. Significant growth in reserves: Parex's focused exploration program on proven oil plays and a drilling success rate of 83% bodes well for further oil discoveries in 2014. Any significant oil discovery will have a significant material impact on reserves growth and hence the NAV of the company. Positive results, which I expect to see, would initiate a re-rating of the company and its target share price. Commodity risk: - Parex is leveraged to the price of Brent and if the price of crude falls below $100 per barrel, it would have a material impact on Parex's netback and accordingly its cash flow and valuation. This could see the company unable to continue self-funding its capital program and have to use outside funding. Currency risk: The depreciation of the Colombian peso relative to the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar will impact revenues and profitability. For the year-to-date the COP has softened 8% against the USD. Market risk: Parex is vulnerable to a general market or sector downturn, as we have already witnessed earlier in 2014 with the emerging markets crisis triggered by the significant depreciation of the Argentine peso. Country/geopolitical risk: Parex operates in Colombia, which is an emerging Latam economy. While Colombia has a business environment conducive to foreign investment, particularly in the petroleum industry, there is still has a higher degree of risk than developed jurisdictions. Contract risk: There is a risk Parex's crude purchasing customers may forfeit payment and cause a working capital squeeze. Operational risk: The company may suffer from adverse operational events which can impact reserves, production, cash flow and cash on hand. Such events could also see reserves being downgraded reducing the overall value of Parex's asset base. The company may also not be able to ramp up production as per its historical performance or as per guidance. This would see Parex become dependent on raising capital externally in order to fund its exploration and development capex. Such an event would either weaken the balance sheet if debt were used or potential dilute existing share holders through an equity raising. Despite its recent share price rally over the last year, Parex's shares are still trading in heavily under-valued territory, offering 69% potential upside with a price target of $14 over the next year. There are a range of short-term catalysts coupled with a strong exploration program, growing production and reserves, Brent pricing, an astute management team and a low level of leverage that can only push Parex's share price higher. Disclosure: I am long PARXF, GTE, PEGFF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)Want more from this author? Follow and be the first to know when they publish. Caiman Valores (1,071 followers) Long/short equity, contrarian, long-term horizon, energy(You’ll be notified by email with new articles from your favorite authors. Contact Me We only use your contact details to reply to your request for more information. We do not sell the personal contact data you submit to anyone else. We look forward to contacting you shortly for a conversation. This article was sent to 114 people who get email alerts on . This article was sent to 450,950 people who get the Investing Ideas newsletter. Comments () This article has comments. To read them or add your own, click here. Add your email to get alerts on too: Get email alerts on »This article was sent to 450,950 people who get the Investing Ideas newsletter. 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