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homecontributorsarchivesforumszh-tshirtstoreglossarydonatemanifestorssNiTeMaRe IN 2016... A sneak peak... Posted by: Phoenix Capital... The global Central Banks are relying increasing on verbal intervention. The reasoning here is very simple: actual monetary policy is proving to have marginal effects. In the US, every new wave... Yes, even Wall Street is a "victim" of open source. To prevent automated spam submissions leave this field empty. Dr. Wealth. Following the March Jobs Report, ConvergEx's Nick Colas got to thinking about the composition of employment growth rather than just the headline number. Is every new job created really the same when it comes to overall economic impact? Consider that the average household income in Maryland is $69,920, versus $39,592 in Mississippi. Or that Mining and Logging jobs pay, on average, $28.77/hour and Retail Trade positions average only $14.22/hour. To expand on this point, Colas came up with three 'Ideal' marginal hires, when considering which jobs bring the most "bang" for the wage/employment "buck". new job at a tech company for a recent college grad in Colorado. All three offer excellent multipliers for the national economy, highlighting that at this point in the cycle we should be focused on job quality as much as quantity. After +20 years looking at capital markets, I have found that making the complex seem simple is an underappreciated discipline. It is easy to revel in the complexity of modern high finance, but cutting the Gordion’s knot of excess data with a sharp stroke does make life easier and leads – generally – to better decisions. It is a double edged sword we’re using, yes, and small mistakes can mean a nasty cut. Still, even just the process of trying to distill the complex into the understandable is usually worth the effort. By way of example, consider a large multinational automotive company like Ford or General Motors. How do you get a handle on whether earnings estimates should rise or fall through a quarter? Both companies operate in scores of countries, manufacture on multiple continents, have full product ranges from tiny cars to large SUVs, and set pricing through constantly changing dealer and consumer incentive programs. Your earnings model can run into the thousands of line items if you pull every financial item from the 10-Q in your quest to build the perfect forecasting tool. I know – I did exactly that for a decade as a brokerage analyst covering the sector. Or, you can think at the margin – what single high volume product has an outsized impact on incremental earnings? Consider that large pickup trucks are still very popular in the U.S., with Ford F-Series and Chevrolet Silverado selling a combined 1.2 million units last year. Not surprisingly, therefore, they are the #1 and #2 best-selling vehicles in the country, with #3 (Toyota Camry) and #4 (Honda Accord) selling only 775,000 units combined. Add to these unit volume numbers the fact that pickups are still very profitable vehicles for any automaker, with contribution margins of $4,000 or more (often a lot more) versus $2,000 or so for passenger cars. And where is the biggest pickup truck market in America? Yep. Texas. Therefore, when it comes right down to it, the single most important thing to know about a U.S. car company is: “How are pickup truck sales in Texas?” If they are doing better, it will take a lot of screw ups elsewhere in the system for the company to disappoint on earnings. And if they are dropping unexpectedly, well, watch out below. While many of my economist friends may bridle at the comparison, I think we can do a little ‘Pickups in Texas’ style analysis on the U.S. labor market and how job growth translates into overall economic expansion. Just as the profits from a small car are different from those on a fully loaded Crew Cab, not all jobs are created equal when it comes to their impact on the broader economy. Unemployment might be 6.7% nationally, but the spread is wide on a state-by-state level. North Dakota is the lowest, at 2.6% and Rhode Island anchors the other end of the spectrum at 9.0%. Even large states can be outliers – California still suffers from an 8.0% unemployment rate. State-by-state wages vary widely as well. In Maryland, the average household pulls in $69,920 annually. In Mississippi that number is $39,592. Yes, the cost of living is radically different, but where would you rather see jobs added if all you care about is GDP growth? It’s not down on the bayou. Wages by profession are also quite different. Land a gig in a retail store, and the average job pays $14.22/hour. Get a job in the Information Technology sector and your hourly wage is more than double that, at $28.77. So where are the “Pickups” in this data, or (in other words) what kinds of jobs will most quickly increase total economic growth? It’s not just a matter of what and where; you have to consider “Who”. While it might be tempting to say that one more hedge fund analyst job paying $500,000 in New York City would help the U.S. economy the most, it’s probably not true. That person is likely married, needs to save a lot for either an apartment or a child’s college education, or perhaps both. Wealthier people don’t actually make great consumers – they are generally more focused on maintaining and investing their income and savings. You want someone who will basically spend all the money they get from their new job – that’s the best economic bang for the buck when it comes to marginal employment. Single, 23, living in Colorado, with a new job in Information Technology. Younger workers have had a tough time in the current economic environment, and the unemployment rate for the 20-24 year old cohort is still 11.9%. That puts many of them at home, living with their parents, even after a four year college degree. In this scenario, a college grad gets a good full time job in IT making the going wage in the sector, roughly $60,000. They finally move out of their parent’s house and into their own apartment. That household formation has a large multiplier effect, as they buy everything they need for their new life. As long as they aren’t flooded with college debt – the national average is just over $15,000 – much of what they make will quickly flow back into the national economy. And why Colorado? It has a good combination of high household income ($60,180) and average unemployment at 6.1%. Job growth in a troubled area of the country may not yield as many benefits as healthier parts, with local job cuts offsetting the incremental benefit of the marginal worker. Married, middle aged, construction worker in Texas who did not complete high school. The last five years have been toughest for workers without a high school degree. Even now, their unemployment rate is 9.8% and there are over 1 million unemployed in this cohort. Construction is one career where on-the-job experience trumps formal education, and it pays well: $24.57/hour on average. Our marginal worker would be married with kids, and therefore likely to spend his new income on necessities and child-rearing. Why Texas and not, say, Florida? The housing market in the Lone Star State has fully recovered from the Financial Crisis, and our construction worker’s house is now worth more than ever. In Florida, we would run the risk that he would use his income to catch up on his mortgage payments or credit card bills (run up because he had no equity in his house and no income). Single mom, school teacher, moving from a part time to full time position in Pennsylvania. There are still over 7 million Americans working part time jobs even though they would like full time employment. Yes, this is down from the +9 million in this group in 2010, but this pool of workers represents a lot of dry powder for an accelerating U.S. economy. Pennsylvania’s average income is right in the middle of the national distribution, at $51,245. Teaching pays well, at $21.60/hour on average. Why did we make her a single mom? Women who maintain families continue to have a higher unemployment rate than their married peers. It’s not even close. Single moms have an unemployment rate of 9.1% versus 4.2% for married women with their spouse present in the household. If promoted to full time status, there is no doubt our mom would spend all the incremental income on their family. To sum up, we should focus much more on the kinds of jobs being created than on the raw number of additions. It’s not just wages that matter, either – a whole range of factors go into the equation. To harken back to our automotive analogy, we need a “Big pickup” recovery. All we ever seem to get is a compact car, however. - advertisements -Comment viewing options Flat list - collapsedFlat list - expandedThreaded list - collapsedThreaded list - expanded Date - newest firstDate - oldest first 10 comments per page30 comments per page50 comments per page70 comments per page90 comments per page150 comments per page200 comments per page250 comments per page300 comments per page Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes. Ambiguity is the point. The more ambiguity, the better, as far as politicians are concerned. Because while the true economic situation might be deterioritating, they can claim a victory as long as the statistics are ambiguous enough. And that's not to even mention the honesty of the statistics themselves. Bottom line is that this bullshit is not to be trusted for anything. Not for public consumption. Not for investment purposes. It is total bullshit. "To sum up, we should focus much more on the kinds of jobs being created than on the raw number of additions. I have no capacity to make any of those 3 scenarios happen. Neither does anyone I know or could imagine. So, I'm guessing he means government. Or this is one big mental jerk-off. Of the top eight states in median income, six are heavily reliant on government. Sucks to be them I guess. I do 80 a month @$180. Technically I'm not even fulltime in my primary vocation.... but then again, Who the fuck wants to be pulling more than 20 hours a week on a regular basis? Spending a career waking up at noon and planning for a good solid retirement by 45? Thank you very much please, cus working sucks and I'd rather just fuck around on the farm in and travel a bunch. "Job quality" he says. Not even a conceptual understanding as to state of technology today let alone its impact on "compensation" or "human labor. Focus should be on the "kinds of jobs" he says. He wants high paid "make work"... Luddite HOPING to put a kid on automation. Freaking cavemen I swear. "Jobs" are there. Ask the machines they'll tell you. The job growth I see is in security guards, tatoo artists and pay day advance stores, which are popping up all over. 04-04 16:36: RANSQUAWK AUDIO CLOSED FOR THE WEEK; THE DESK WILL REOPEN SUNDAY 2200... 04-04 16:03: US EQUITY WRAP: Equities slumped into the weekend off the back of a... 04-04 18:30: SkyWest reports combined March traffic up 2. 04-04 17:57: Source Capital reports total unaudited net assets $667.32M as of... 04-04 17:57: Judge does not issue 'stop drive order' for faulty GM... 04-04 17:57: North Tide Capital reports 5. 04-04 17:27: Blackstone to acquire Gates Global for $5. 04-04 21:06: sanctions. yeah. 04-04 21:06: Not a bad guess. 04-04 15:30: Peak Bubble 2. Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge. General: info [ at ] zerohedge. Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge. Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge. Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge. It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure. 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NCAA Tournament 2014 TV schedule: Watch Final Four with a hometown spin

The 2014 Final Four NCAA tournament will provide 'hometown' TV game coverage of the 'Final Four,' utilizing broadcast announcers with local ties to each school. This is the first time March Madness has offered 'team-specific' live broadcasts simultaneously. AT&T Stadium, host of the 2014 NCAA Final Four, is seen from Globe Life Park Monday, March 31, 2014, in Arlington, Texas. If you're looking for some local flavor – or full-court partisan spin – as you watch the 'Final Four' of the 2014 NCAA men's basketball tournament this Saturday night, you've got options. Weekly Digital EditionThe NCAA has announced for that television rights holder CBS and its cable partner, Turner Sports, will provide for the first-time "team-specific broadcasts" of Saturday's 'Final Four' games. Turner Sports and CBS are experimenting with airing two additional telecasts of both NCAA semifinals. Along with the main coverage on TBS, there will be separate versions on TNT and truTV with different announcing crews connected to each school. What this means is that for fans of all four schools will be able to watch coverage of their specific game and listen to announcers who are very familiar with their favorite team. Whether this will improve, or diminish, the experience may depend on your point of view. These "Teamcasts" will feature custom music, custom graphics, team-specific replays, additional cameras geared toward one team, and a custom halftime show. Most importantly, they will feature broadcasters who have been hired specifically to appeal to that fan base. The broadcasters will be encouraged by Turner and CBS to be over-the-top homers for those schools. The two national semifinal games will be broadcast on TBS, beginning at 6 p.m. Eastern time Saturday. This will be the "no-spin" zone. Connecticut vs. Gators fans: Top seed and South region champion Florida will be on TNT at 6 p.m. Eastern time Saturday. Former University of Florida sports broadcast host David Steele will handle the play-by-play, with Mark Wise and James Bates taking care of analysis and sideline reporter duties.Huskies fans: Coverage of East region champ Connecticut, which is the Gators' opponent in the first semifinal, can be found on truTV at 6 p.m. Eric Frede, UConn women's television play-by-play announcer this season, will be joined by former Huskies greats Donny Marshall and Swin Cash.Kentucky vs. Wildcats fans: 30 minutes after the conclusion of the first semifinal on TNT, Midwest champion Kentucky will tip off against Wisconsin. Longtime Lexington, Kentucky sports broadcasters Rob Bromley and Dave Baker of WKYT-TV will take care of the play-by-play and sideline reporting chores, respectively. Former Wildcats legend Rex Chapman will provide analysis of the game action.Badgers fans: At the same time over on truTV, West region champion Wisconsin fans can find Green Bay Packers radio voice Wayne Larrivee calling the NCAA action. He will be joined by former Badger star Mike Kelley, who helped Wisconsin reach the 2000 NCAA Final Four. You can find Pat Murphy on Facebook, Twitter, Google+. About these ads Sign up to receive a selection of the most popular stories of the week every Saturday. Science Yellowstone bison fleeing impending supervolcano? No. Science How old is the moon? New dating method offers clues. Science Why do zebras have stripes? New research offers answer. Yellowstone bison fleeing impending supervolcano? No. George W. Bush unveils his paintings of world leaders. 04.04. CSMonitor. The island night lizard was delisted as an endangered species in the US this week, after three decades of restoration efforts. 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Apr 05 Sat 2014 09:02
Weekend Movies: 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' |News

The Avengers are back. Well, two of them anyway. "On the left" Steve Rogers (Chris Evans) warns a stranger as he jogs past him at The Mall in Washington D.C. Moments later, "On the left" again. "On the left" again and a wave of quiet laughter starts rolling in the theater as it dawns on the crowd - the super soldier, better known as Captain America, is lapping this man repeatedly. It's the perfect soft joke to open CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER. It's not hilarious, really, but it's warm and good natured... neighborly even. Which could also describe this fish-out-of-water superhero. Steve Rogers isn't of our time. He's 90 years old, actually, but he still looks like Chris Evans because being frozen in a block of ice for 60+ years is its own kind of fountain of youth. That Marvel Studios didn't worry about modernizing the character when they de-thawed him was something of a master stroke. Warner Bros, who owns the rights to the similarly square Wonder Woman clearly have spent a lot of time worrying about this rather than embracing it, or we'd have long since had an Amazonian blockbuster. That conviction in the character gave us Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) which was an immediate standout in the crowded superhero genre for its 1940s WWII setting (complete with an awesome retro musical number). Neither that conviction nor his character melted with the ice for this sequel. The Captain is still the Captain, through and through, even though he's had a few years to adjust and looks perfectly at home in a smartly modernized costume. And he brings along some friends this time. MORE AFTER THE JUMP... The man who can't keep up with Rogers on the morning jog is a former soldier himself, Sam Wilson (who comic fans will know as the good captain's future sidekick The Falcon) and after a brief chat about tours of duty The Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson) drives up to collect her fellow Avenger for a top secret S.H.I.E.L.D. mission. And they're off and the story with them as they speed to the first action setpiece and the one after that. Captain America shares billing this time with The Winter Soldier, a mythic and extremely formidable assassin who wants all the heroes dead. But why? Or, a better question: who are the heroes? Nick Fury (Samuel L Jackson) after a very narrow escape from an extremely tense assassination attempt sequence warns Steve to trust no one which leads to some wonderfully prickly moments with The Black Widow. Scarlett Johansson continues to spin gold in the role, despite that weirdly dull start in Iron Man 2, slyly suggesting not so much duplicity as the thrill of conveying duplicitousness. Evans and Johansson have great chemistry and one of the welcome surprises of the movie is how much of a Black Widow feature it turns out to be (Hey, if she can't get her own movie... And the action sequences. Joe and Anthony Russo are the new directors and though their previous filmography does not immediately suggest facility with mega-budget action, they apparently learned from the right movies. They seem to have studied at the school of James Cameron and other masters in that you can actually follow (most of) the fight scenes, where the characters are, what they're doing and how it might affect the other characters in the fight. That's so rare in modern blockbusters when they usually just edit a million tiny little shards of movement together and presume you'll be excited because it's fast and there's very loud music playing. Not every scene works as well as others of course. As per usual the finale gets way bigger than it needs to and feels a little anti-climactic because it's not as tightly focused as the "smaller" setpieces leading up to it. But the action here has great stunt work and numerous playfully staged surprises including one absolute knockout sequence in an elevator. It keeps things simple but you don't need visual pyrotechnics for every scene, not when you have a tightening vise of a plot and a really solid hero at the center of it all. Even better, the fights feel genuinely dangerous this time around now that it's mostly humans punching and kicking and firing at each other; the red caped demi-gods, iron men, and angry green giants are nowhere to be seen. Literally every character here, even the ones that at first seem indestructable, experience authentic-looking pain during all the explosions, shootings and death defying leaps and runs. On the left and, now, well out front. The Captain America franchise is now lapping its (plentiful) superheroic competition. Captain America: The Winter Soldier is the best superhero film we've seen since the genre's double peak in 2004 (Spider-Man 2 and The Incredibles). And it couldn't have happened to a nicer or more unlikely hero. Chris Evans is on record that he plans to retire from acting when his Marvel contract is up. It's easy to see why playing a stiffly noble and patriotic hero in film after film might be less than artistically satisfying but he's aces in the role regardless. His quiet resolve and lack of actorly tics -- he does just enough to sell each scene and never pushes -- are a perfect fit for the modest personality of this All-American hero who's just trying to be the best man he can be. And, you know, save the world. Again. Nathaniel Rogers would live in the movie theater but for the poor internet reception. He blogs daily at the Film Experience. Follow him on Twitter @nathanielr. This post's comment feed CommentsThis movie was astounding. What a fag. What a fag. Captain America = corporate Hollywood crap. Contact. 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Apr 05 Sat 2014 09:01
Meet the animal hybrids who like to mix it up

irishracing. Industrial production up 5. Trocaire interactive story: the water carriers of Central Malawi Best Place to Go Wild in Ireland: Mayo leads the reader nominations Dublin underground: the entrepreneurs working below street level TK Whitaker, 97: ‘I feel I made a contribution. Choose from an extensive range of photos taken by Irish Times photographers Travel offer: Return to Havana for 10 days from only €2389pp Offer closed: Enjoy a 2 night stay at Dunbrody Country House Hotel with breakfast and dinner Travel offer: Head to Goa for 11 days from only €2199pp Offer closed: 1 night in Hotel Meyrick with 1 evening meal and a 30 minute spa treatment for €165 Search By using this website, you consent to our use of cookies. For more information on cookies see our Cookie Policy. The as yet un-named Geep (a cross breed of a goat and a sheep) with its mother on Paddy Murphy’s farm in Ballymore Eustace, Co Kildare. Sat, Apr 5, 2014, 01:01It’s a cross between a goat and a Cheviot ewe and it’s the toast of Ballymore Eustace this week. When a wily goat was spotted getting close to his sheep flock, farmer and publican Paddy Murphy didn’t think there was any risk that it could successfully mate with a sheep. Five months later, he was proved wrong and a little geep is now gambolling around the fields of Kildare. Although goats and sheep often graze together, crosses are seldom successful, with offspring usually stillborn. Of course the geep is not the only hybrid animal out there.The best known is the mule, a donkey-horse hybrid. Zebras seem to be quite promiscuous when it comes to cross-breeding and have no qualms about mating with horses, donkeys and asses. Their offspring are known as zebroids. The zorse is the progeny of a zebra stallion and female horse. They retain their stripes when crossed and tend to retain the aggressive temperament of a zebra, but they are shaped more like a horse. Male zebras have also been crossed with female Shetland ponies, resulting in offspring that have been dubbed Zetlands. Because polar bears and grizzlies live in very different habitats, the chances of any romantic dalliances between them are unlikely. However, in 2006 a hunter in Canada’s Northwest Territories found and shot a grizzly-polar bear hybrid, believing it was a normal polar bear. A liger is a cross between a male lion and a female tiger. According to the Guinness Book of Records , the world’s largest living cat is Hercules, an adult liger living at Myrtle Beach Safari, a wildlife reserve in South Carolina in the United States. And then there are the coydogs, a cross between a male coyote and a female dog. They are thought to be dangerous because of their cunning combined with their lack of fear of humans. But don’t forget the camas, the result of a cross between a female llama and male camel. The first one was bred in Dubai by a British scientist and named – what else – Rama the cama. The cama doesn’t have a hump and has the long fluffy coat of a llama. In 1985, Punahele, a female dolphin at Hawaii Sea Life Park, gave birth to a whale dolphin hybrid after her eyes met with a false killer whale across a crowded tank. Wholphins were introduced to the world and according to Sea Life Park’s website, that baby wholphin, Kekaimalu, is still entertaining visitors. And then of course you have the labradoodles, cockapoos and all the other crosses between different breeds of dogs. But that’s a whole other article. Spot the ball, name the wife, why the dog?... rewardingtimes. myhome. irishracing. entertainment. top1000. myantiques. newsdelivery. irishtimestraining. 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Apr 05 Sat 2014 08:54
Column: Running my first 5K

Published: Saturday, April 5, 2014 at 17:00 PM. My adventure began a week ago last Friday. I was waiting in line to pick up my registration packet. I’ve been training for about a month for this – the New Bern Glow Run, a 5K that runs from Union Point Park past the Cedar Grove Cemetery and back. This was the first time I registered for any organized race, so the nerves were pretty strong. I asked for advice through Twitter and Facebook. I got all the feedback I needed. All I had to do was run a full 3.2 miles with 1,500 people doing the same. It was just a few miles. I mean McKinley Gray, Epiphany’s star cross country runner, does it with ease. I was advised to “have fun” and “keep going. It will be over before you know it. On race day, moments before the big event, I looked the part – glow sticks around my neck and wrist, the race t-shirt on, my alarm clock set and I was sporting Bib No. 2165. I’m not like my family – my father and sisters are avid runners. They are about to run in the Cleveland Road Race in May. But, I was more than ready to “Glow Hard or Glow Home.” And, I definitely did not want to glow home without completing the race. Mentally, was I prepared? Probably not. I followed the training instructions – run an inane amount of minutes here, rest a minute, then back to running my butt off for another crazy amount of time. So, on race day, I was amped up. I had the mentality of Usain Bolt or Carl Lewis, competitively speaking. I was thinking, “Let’s get this race over in 17 minutes. I walked up to the starting line, surrounded by a ton of people, a ton of people. I was completely overwhelmed, something the training guides don’t prepare you for. And, hoooonk, and we were off. The first mile went smoothly, I was feeling no pain. I felt invincible. I was dodging the onslaught on joggers and walkers, and strollers. My goal was to not allow the strollers and six-year olds beat me. That couldn’t happen. I felt my energy begin to fade around the mile-and-a-half point and the always disturbing stomach ache midway through. Yet, I still had to finish. Plunging along, with my awesome girlfriend next to me, I was in the stretch run – less than a half mile remaining. All I could focus on, aside from the glow sticks laying solemnly in the street, was the finish line, and Batman and Captain America. In respect to others’ embarrassment, I won’t announce my time. I don’t want others to feel slow. But I finished. I completed my task. And most importantly, it was over. I did what people told me to do – I had fun and I did not stop. I may run another 5K at some point soon. Adam Thompson can be contacted at Adam.Thompson@newbernsj.com. Follow Adam on Twitter @Adam_matic. Reader comments posted to this article may be published in our print edition. All rights reserved. This copyrighted material may not be re-published without permission. Links are encouraged. COMMENTS Column: Running my first 5K By Adam Thompson, Sun Journal Staff http://www.newbernsj.com April 5, 2014 17:0 My adventure began a week ago last Friday. I was waiting in line to pick up my registration packet.I’ve been training for about a month for this – the New Bern Glow Run, a 5K that runs from Union Point Park past the Cedar Grove Cemetery and back.This was the first time I registered for any organized race, so the nerves were pretty strong.I asked for advice through Twitter and Facebook. I got all the feedback I needed. All I had to do was run a full 3.2 miles with 1,500 people doing the same.Simple, right?It was just a few miles. I mean McKinley Gray, Epiphany’s star cross country runner, does it with ease.I was advised to “have fun” and “keep going. It will be over before you know it.”On race day, moments before the big event, I looked the part – glow sticks around my neck and wrist, the race t-shirt on, my alarm clock set and I was sporting Bib No. 2165.I’m not like my family – my father and sisters are avid runners. They are about to run in the Cleveland Road Race in May.But, I was more than ready to “Glow Hard or Glow Home.” And, I definitely did not want to glow home without completing the race.Mentally, was I prepared? Probably not.I followed the training instructions – run an inane amount of minutes here, rest a minute, then back to running my butt off for another crazy amount of time.So, on race day, I was amped up. I had the mentality of Usain Bolt or Carl Lewis, competitively speaking.I was thinking, “Let’s get this race over in 17 minutes.”I walked up to the starting line, surrounded by a ton of people, a ton of people. I was completely overwhelmed, something the training guides don’t prepare you for.And, hoooonk, and we were off.The first mile went smoothly, I was feeling no pain. I felt invincible.I was dodging the onslaught on joggers and walkers, and strollers. My goal was to not allow the strollers and six-year olds beat me.That couldn’t happen.I felt my energy begin to fade around the mile-and-a-half point and the always disturbing stomach ache midway through.Yet, I still had to finish.Plunging along, with my awesome girlfriend next to me, I was in the stretch run – less than a half mile remaining. All I could focus on, aside from the glow sticks laying solemnly in the street, was the finish line, and Batman and Captain America.In respect to others’ embarrassment, I won’t announce my time. I don’t want others to feel slow.But I finished. I completed my task. And most importantly, it was over.I did what people told me to do – I had fun and I did not stop.I may run another 5K at some point soon. Adam Thompson can be contacted at Adam.Thompson@newbernsj.com. Follow Adam on Twitter @Adam_matic. Most Read Girls Basketball: Cherry is N.C. Girls Basketball: Cherry is N.C. 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Apr 05 Sat 2014 08:53
New England Conservatory Presents Gyorgy Kurtag Signs, Games & Messages on Monday, April 28 in...

JazzCorner.com is the largest portal for the official websites of hundreds of jazz musicians and organizations. New features on JazzCorner include the jazz video share where you can upload and share jazz and blues videos, JazzCorner Jukebox, surf the net with Jazz always on, submit your latest jazz news, and check out what's hot at JazzCorner's Speakeasy, the busiest bulletin board for jazz. Be the first to know where Jazz artists are performing in our gigs section, and be sure to listen to our podcasts with established and up and coming jazz musicians in our Innerviews section. PublishingMJQ Music, Inc. Join NEC Contemporary Improvisation students and faculty, led by composer/pianist Anthony Coleman in Gyorgy Kurtag Signs, Games & Messages, a concert featuring performances and riffs on renowned Romanian-born composer Kurtag's music, sources, and notions. The concert takes place on Monday, April 28 at 8 p.m. in NEC’s Jordan Hall, 290 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA. The concert is free and open to the public. For more information, log on to http://necmusic.edu/gyorg... or call 617-585-1122. Gyorgy Kurtag is a composer to whom thoughts and words are important: he often spins his music off of texts—by writers and thinkers ranging from Samuel Beckett to 18th-century scientist Georg Christoph Lichtenberg. This is also a man deeply dedicated to playfulness: the umbrella term Jatekok (Games) has now been applied to 8 volumes of an ongoing series of his music for piano since 1973, and he has created Hommage works dedicated to a hall of fame where Robert Schumann and Nancy Sinatra provocatively coexist. One of the most anticipated new operas on the horizon is Kurtag's setting of Samuel Beckett's Endgame, which is now projected to be premiered in 2015. That this 88-year-old composer can continue to generate headlines with such an ambitious project is testimony to a long career that has combined playfulness, perfectionism, and a highly intellectual bent. From the Sarajevo Jazz Festival to the Jewish Culture Festival in Krakow, Poland, Anthony Coleman’s musical odyssey has taken him through many cultures and led him to wear many hats as composer, improvising keyboardist, and teacher. Coleman joined the NEC faculty in 2006, returning to a school where he himself studied in the 1970s, during the birth of NEC’s Contemporary Improvisation program (then called Third Stream). In addition to his work as a studio teacher and ensemble coach, Coleman works with NEC’s Contemporary Improvisation students to organize a departmental concert each spring. Coleman is featured on over 100 CDs including some 15 of his own, many on the Tzadik label. Coleman has presented his own work worldwide including performances at the Sarajevo Jazz Festival (Bosnia), North Sea Jazz Festival (Holland), Saalfelden Festival (Austria), and the Krakow and Vienna Jewish Culture Festivals. He has also toured and recorded with John Zorn, Elliott Sharp, Marc Ribot, Shelley Hirsch, Roy Nathanson, and many others. His work has been commissioned and performed by a wide range of musicians/organizations including clarinetist David Krakauer/Concert Artists Guild, Relache, The Crosstown Ensemble, Neta Pulvermacher and Dancers/Meet The Composer, Bang on a Can All-Stars/Jerome Foundation, TILT Brass Band. the Brecht Forum, Merkin Concert Hall, the Festival Banlieues Blues/Ensemble Erik Satie, ISSUE Project Room/ String Orchestra of Brooklyn and many others. Founded in 1972 by musical visionaries Gunther Schuller and Ran Blake, New England Conservatory's Contemporary Improvisation program is “one of the most versatile in all of music education” (JazzEd). Now in its 41st year, the program trains composer/performer/ improvisers to broaden their musical palettes and develop unique voices. It is unparalleled in its structured approach to ear training and its emphasis on singing, memorization, harmonic sophistication, aesthetic integrity, and stylistic openness. Under Blake's guidance for its first twenty-six years, the program expanded its offerings under subsequent chair Allan Chase and current chair Hankus Netsky. Alumni include Don Byron, John Medeski, Jacqueline Schwab, Aoife O'Donovan and Sarah Jarosz; faculty include Carla Kihlstedt, Blake, Dominique Eade, and Anthony Coleman. “A thriving hub of musical exploration,” (Jeremy Goodwin, Boston Globe), the program currently has 43 undergrad and graduate students from 14 countries. www.necmusic. http://necmusic. More Information: http://necmusic. 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Apr 05 Sat 2014 08:52
Citroen's CLA45 AMG For China Is Funky, Fun, And Named Like A Camera

PFollow JalopnikOUnfollow JalopnikRelated blogsCOpposite LockCDetroitCDoug DemuroCFlightclubCFoxtrot AlphaCTruck yeah!Blogs you may likeDeadspinGawkerGizmodoio9JalopnikJezebelKotakuLifehackerTrending on Related BlogsHoney Maid Tells Homophobes to Take a Hike in Best Response Ad Ever 2.7k people reading on JezebelNPR Pulled a Brilliant April Fools' Prank On People Who Don't Read 2.3k people reading on Gawker?Your PC Must Be This Burly To Play Watch Dogs 1. In 5 seconds, click here to continue reading... rGo to permalinkCitroen will bring this handsome little fellow to this year's Beijing Auto Show, the DS 5LS R Concept which, as it turns out, isn't a camera but a car. In fact, it's the performance version of the DS 5LS which is exclusively sold in China. The DS 5LS R makes an impressive 300hp and 295 ft/lbs of torque from a rather diminutive 1.6-liter turbocharged four cylinder which is routed through some sort of sequential gearbox with paddle shifters. Citroen has lowered the chassis by 15mm as well as widened front track. They've also employed the usage carbon fiber components, though the capacity of which isn't specified. In the interior you'll find leather, Alcantara, and carbon fiber trim all of which are de rigueur for any car with sporting pretensions these days. All and all, a pretty neat little concept for the French automaker, and somewhat of a shame that it won't be sold elsewhere. It would provide a great foil to the CLA45 AMG & the Audi S3. Respond to Chris Perkins and keep the discussion going... 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Apr 05 Sat 2014 08:51
Caroline Murphy and the Murphy Group - one woman's construction empire

ePaperAppsPostal Delivery Photos Competitions Advertise With Us Shop Find a... She’s the heiress to a family fortune, a trade unionist and gay rights campaigner. And just a couple of weeks ago she turned her back on the family business in a dispute over her attempts to turn Murphy Group and its 3,500 employees into a workers’ co-op. As Caroline Murphy prepares to hand workers her ?40m in shares, Michael Clifford reports. CAROLINE Murphy moved with grace and ease among the Murphy men at her father’s funeral. It was May 2009, and all had descended on John Murphy’s native Cahirciveen in Co Kerry to pay their last respects to a man who was known to thousands as simply, “The Boss”. He had left south Kerry an illiterate, penniless teenager, and spawned a construction empire conservatively worth over €350 million. In his lifetime, the green vans of J Murphy and Sons had become as much a feature of London streets as red post boxes. The arc of his life closed when he died at the age of 95 at his home in Hamstead, London. Caroline was the chief mourner at the funeral. Her father had anointed her as his successor two years earlier when he appointed her as deputy chairperson at the age of just 24. In the patriarchal world of construction — and particularly London Irish construction — this was a remarkable departure. But then, by all accounts, Caroline Murphy was a remarkable woman, and her father had spotted her talent at an early age. At the funeral, she was among her own, the immigrants from Kerry and beyond from whose ranks her father had never strayed. She may have grown up with a sliver spoon well within reach if required, but she moved easily among the generations of Murphy men, many of whom had begun their working life with a shovel and little else, just like her father. Those who met her were impressed. Word rippled around the gathering that John Murphy’s legacy looked to be in safe hands. Within months she suffered what she later described as a breakdown. “I just hit a brick wall running. Really hit it,” she later explained. “I was engulfed by familial, legal, personal and work-related problems, any one of which would have taken every last ounce of my physical and emotional strength to handle. Yet they all came together. They crashed through the ceiling on top of me, and I was pinioned underneath, rendered powerless and immobile from the weight and the pressure, and incapable of helping myself to find a way out. Some speculation had it that there was a family fall-out over John Murphy’s will. Murphy had long ensured that all his personal and business affairs were kept well out of the media, and the family has continued that strategy. She eventually recovered, but her life took a complete new direction. Her involvement with the family business came to an end 10 days ago when she announced her resignation from the board. She wanted to turn the multi-million pound business into a worker’s Co-op, to be owned by the 3,500 employees. Her fellow board members — principally her mother, bother and half brother — didn’t share her enthusiasm for dispersing the wealth. She felt she had no option but to resign. Her “exit statement” read: “My appointment to deputy chairman by my father John Murphy, was a decision he made with confidence and strength. He chose that same moment to publicly announce his long held wish for me to take over the running of the family business. “My father remains a great inspiration to me. I was delighted to have seen the company grow in strength during the years I worked, embedding his values into the structure of the Murphy Group. I was proud to see those efforts recognised independently too, when I was named as one of the top five private business women in the UK. “The natural extension of my father’s values, in my view, is the development of the Murphy Group into an employee-owned structure. It is the people working within this company that have created its success and I believe the future of his legacy is best entrusted into their capable hands. I have been vocal in my belief that leadership of this business must include those working on the ground if it is to continue to deliver for the clients who have placed their trust in us over the years. “Taking into account the direction of the board’s interests, the current structure holds no space for me to develop this process further. She has said she is committed to selling her stake in the group — believed to be worth around ?40m — to workers for nominal sums. For those beyond the immediate orbit of the secretive family, the development has come as a major surprise. Some see it as “rich kid syndrome”, but Ms Murphy has, over recent years, shown a major commitment to the rights of workers and minorities. She has become particularly active in areas such as gay rights and the plight of Irish Traveller women. Her family was reported to be upset at her proposal. Others who knew John Murphy are sceptical as to whether he would have shared his daughter’s vision. “I’d say he’d be turning in his grave down there in Cahirciveen,” one said. Another expressed a similar opinion. “John Murphy was a hard man but good man to work for if you worked, and he never lost the run of himself with money. But giving it all away? I don’t think he’d have gone for that.” Neither source was willing to go on the record as a time when the Murphy family is obviously experiencing difficulties. Ms Murphy could claim, with some authority, that she knew her father better than others and that her vision of how the group should develop is in line with her father’s. There is little doubt but that she was the apple of her father’s eye. She was born when John Murphy was 69 and married for the second time following the death of his first wife. Her mother Kathy is a former nurse, whom Murphy met when she was attending to his first wife during her final illness. The family is completed by Caroline’s bother James, who is two years her junior. John Murphy’s ascent is the stuff of legend among the immigrant community in the UK. He arrived in London in the late 1930s, and began to assert himself during the Second World War when he worked at clearing snow in what was then London Airport. He quickly branched out on his own, and showed his entrepreneurial potential. It was during those early years that he adopted the name John, even though he had arrived in London under his baptismal name of James. In later life, he claimed that he took his father’s name so that if he died in the Blitz his father back in Kerry could claim his accumulated savings from a London bank. He wasn’t the only member of his family to prosper in the brutal world of post-war London construction. His bother Joe joined him there after a spell working in An Garda Siochana in Dublin. Joe’s baptismal name was John, but with his brother already claiming that, the real John became Joe when he got off the boat. After a number of years, the brothers split their operation and thereafter became known by the colour coding of their plant and transport vehicles. John was the green Murphy, Joe the grey. Much later, Joe became embroiled in the Mahon Tribunal following a dispute with a former employee of his, James Gogarty. Gogarty, who had served with Joe in the gardai, alleged that he was involved in paying a bribe of ?30,000 to Ray Burke on behalf of a Murphy company, JMSE. Joe Murphy’s son, Joe Jnr, was the main focus of Gogary’s ire, and became a key witness in the tribunal. At one stage the tribunal moved to the Channel Islands to interview Joe Snr, who was in poor health. He died in Guernsey in 2000. Meanwhile, despite his enormous success, John Murphy had trouble of his own. Corporate manoeuvrings in the 1970s saw him forced to sell most of his companies, and he also became embroiled in a tax evasion scandal in which two former managers were jailed. He regained control of the group, and went on to oversee major expansion in the UK, and right across Europe and back in Ireland. On a personal level, he knew tragedy through the premature death of his first wife. There was also family strife when he fell out with his own son John, prompting a dispute that led to legal action. The case was settled, but not before a major rift developed between father and son. John Jnr predeceased his father. His other son Bernard relocated from London to Kildare, from where he worked at a corporate level in the group’s Irish interests. But it was John Murphy’s only daughter whom he regarded as the one who would carry his torch. While still a teenager, Caroline worked on building sites and went on to study for a degree in Civil Engineering in Bristol University. A family friend remembers her as a young teenager. “She was extremely bright, no doubt about that. She had inherited her father’s appetite for hard work. Just as Murphy was prone to show up on his sites at 6.30am right into his nineties, so his daughter threw herself into it in the shallows of her working life. “I’m someone who has possessed a drive and a work ethic that is restless, relentless and all-consuming. Once upon a time, I worked 16 hours a day, seven days a week, for four years, as director of a major company,” she told a gathering last year. Then her world came crashing down. She retreated from frontline engagement with the firm in the months after her father’s death. She underwent a major reassessment of her life, emerging with a whole new quiver of priorities. No longer was she focused on carrying her father’s legacy into the future, or certainly not in a conventional manner. Among the causes that she began to espouse was that of workers. In particular, she spoke out against blacklisting in the construction industry, a practice whereby lists of workers were shared among companies who didn’t want to employ anybody who might be regarded as vocal on matters like safety. Speaking at a conference earlier this year, Caroline invoked her own background. “As an immigrant my father was turned away from accommodation in London by the sign ‘No Dogs, No Blacks, No Irish’. He was excluded from workplaces in this city with notices that ‘No Irish Need Apply’. Barring people from work on the grounds of race was wrong then, just as it is wrong now for the brave workers who have raised their voices to make building sites safer for everyone. Her stance was admired, particularly in union circles, coming from a director of a firm, whose family shareholders were paid a dividend of €30m in 2012. By then, she had taken a back seat on day-to-day involvement in the firm. Currently, she is studying an MA on violence against women and children. Gay rights is another of her projects. She is reported to be set to marry her long term partner later this year now that same sex marriage is legal in the UK. The break with the family came on foot of her admiration for a form of co-op she observed in Spain. The company is effectively run by the workers and includes among its businesses grocery shops, car factories and local banks. She visited the operation and was highly impressed. “On the day we visited, their supermarket workers had just taken a decision — this was people stacking shelves, working on the tills — to work longer hours for no pay increase,” she told the London Times last week. “That was what they voted for because they understood the competition, the environment their chain was operating in and they could see it was the right decision. She said her philosophy in these matters was informed by a wish to empower “voiceless” people. “My dad’s view was that you can only wear one pair of shoes at a time,” she said. “People have always had their say within the business but that was very much in the gift of my father, or in my gift. I wanted it not to be in anybody’s gift. She has described the split with the family business as “amicable”, although no comment is forthcoming from the company on the matter. The Murphy approach to PR was best summed up by one industry insider who said that Murphy employs a PR company to say “no comment”. In London, Caroline Murphy’s move has generated considerable news. It’s not everyday somebody who is dubbed a “construction heiress” decides to give it up for a socialist ideal. One line of speculation is that she may be considering a future in politics. She has links with the British Labour party and her youth and background would be regarded as excellent attributes for a political career. Any phone call from Labour leader Ed Milliband requesting her services will resonate with irony within the family. Back in 1992, when the IRA blew up the City of London, prime minister John Major phoned John Murphy, after being told Murphy was the only man capable of repairing the damage in a speedy manner. If his daughter were to embark on a career in people rather than bricks and mortar, it would represent a road less travelled in a family that has come a long way from its humble beginnings in a rural outpost of south Kerry. © Irish Examiner Ltd. Irish Examiner live news app for smartphones lets you quickly access breaking news, sport, business, entertainment and weather. Irish Examiner ePaper app gives you the entire newspaper delivered to your phone or tablet for as little as 55c a day. More in this sectionTaking charge: while boys are called leaders strong girls are 'bossy'How to track down an international celebrityNew Game of Thrones will keep you guessingWomen, please keep your faces on for your selfiesDumping a phone? Clear the data first!Why I’m not feeling blue on Autism DayHow Rapid Response is saving lives and winning awardsWhen it comes to big expensive weddings, I’m no April foolHow the internet became a web of spite and revengeForget #selfies. 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Apr 05 Sat 2014 08:50
Parex Resources - Plenty Of Catalysts Coupled With Higher Crude Prices Offer 60%+ More Upside

Seeking Alpha "Seeking Alpha predicted stock returns... Home | My Portfolio | Breaking News | Latest Articles | StockTalk | ALERTS | PRO This article was sent to 114 people who get email alerts on .Which cover: new articles | breaking news | earnings results | dividend announcementsGet email alerts on »This article was sent to 450,950 people who get the Investing Ideas newsletter. (You’ll be notified by email with new articles from your favorite authors. Parex Resources - Plenty Of Catalysts Coupled With Higher Crude Prices Offer 60%+ More Upside Apr. Massive potential production and reserves growth. High exploration and development drilling success rate coupled with an established presence in known productive oil basins bodes well for further oil discoveries. Brent indexed price creates higher netbacks per barrel (margins) boosting the profitability of oil and liquids production. Overblown market perception of country risk in Colombia sees Parex trading at a significant discount to its NAV. Canadian domiciled small-cap O&G explorer and producer Parex Resources (PARXF), which operates in predominantly in Colombia continues to perform strongly. When I last wrote on the company is in October 2013, I found it was under-valued, offering investors potential upside of 55%, with a price target of $8.87 per share. Since then Parex's share price has shot up almost 50%, and is close to hitting the price target set in that article. However, since then a range of catalysts have emerged that will continue to boost Parex's operational performance, indicating there is significantly more upside available to investors. In this article I will highlight why the company offers investors considerable potential upside in excess of the price target determined in my previous article. For the fourth quarter 2013, Parex's oil and gas production grew strongly 7% QoQ and 40% YoY to 17,287 gross (15,299 net) BOE daily, giving full year production of 15,854 gross or 14,031 net BOE daily. This continues Parex's history of strong production growth as shown in the chart below, with company's production having a CAGR of 168% since commercially viable production commenced in late 2010. Source: Company Presentation. As the chart also highlights this spectacular rate of production growth will continue into 2014, with Parex estimating 2014 calendar year production of 17,500 to 18,500 gross or 14,875 to 15,725 BOEPD. Gross 2014 forecast production represents a 15% to 17% increase over 2013 gross daily production. This production is primarily made up of crude liquids (light and medium oil) with the sale price benchmarked to Brent, which trades at significant premium to West Texas Intermediate. I believe this production guidance is achievable, with Parex planning capital expenditure of $250 million for 2014, a healthy 6.9% increase over 2013. The company has also signaled if exploration and drilling results merit further appraisal it will boost its capital budget by $30 million giving total 2014 capex of $280 million, a 20% increase over 2013. This capex will be allocated to drilling 15 gross (10 net) development wells and 19 gross (12 net) exploration wells in proven plays, with a further 3 gross (2 net) wells to be drilled in emerging new concept plays. For the fourth quarter 2013 Parex reported an operational netback per barrel of $60.78, a decrease of 12% QoQ, while its 2013 full year netback fell 15% YoY to $62.70 per barrel. But despite this decrease, primarily attributable to softer crude (Brent) prices coupled with higher royalties and operational costs, Parex is still able to generate a solid netback per barrel. This netback is superior to the majority of Parex's peers and in particular those peers operating in North American, as the chart highlights. Source: Company filings. It is only fellow Colombian operator Gran Tierra Energy (GTE), which is generating a higher netback per barrel and like Parex, Gran Tierra's sale price per barrel is indexed to Brent. The key reason for Gran Tierra achieving a higher netback is because of the company's significantly lower operating costs per barrel, which can be attributed to the maturity of its operations. Parex is able to generate a superior netback compared to its peers operating in Canada including Penn West Petroleum (PWE), Lightstream Resources (OTCPK:LSTMF) and Surge Energy (ZPTAF). This because they are operating in jurisdictions with higher royalties and operational costs and more importantly have their sale price per barrel is indexed to WTI. As the chart highlights Brent has traded at a clear premium to WTI since 2011, but this premium has narrowed over recent months to 6%, since hitting a 5 month high in November 2013 of 15%. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. As a result of this premium Parex is able to generate a higher netback per barrel produced thereby providing significantly higher margins, cash flow and ultimately profitability. This is a distinct advantage for Parex and Gran Tierra over their North American peers, which find their prices benchmarked to WTI and in many cases trading at a discount to WTI. The primary Canadian light crude blend Edmonton Par currently trades at around an 11% discount to WTI, further narrowing the netback per barrel for Canada's light oil producers. An average Brent price of $100 per barrel over the course of 2014. Royalties are expected to increase to from 11.5% to 15% of total sales. Combine transportation and production costs are expected to average between $27 and $30 per barrel over the course of the year. I have assumed the worst case scenario and used $30 per barrel to calculate the forecast netback. As the chart below shows this gives an average 2014 operating netback of $55 per barrel. Source: Company Filings. This forecast netback is 11.5% lower than the 2013 netback of $62. the average annual royalty rate for 2014 is expected to increase to 15%, which is 3. combined production and transportation costs are expected to be 7% higher than 2013. But this still represents a solid netback which is well above the netback generated by its peers operating in North America. When coupled with a 15% increase production should see Parex still grow operating cash flow in comparison to 2013. Parex continues to generate strong cash flows and this is evident in its 2013 full year results. For the full year 2013 Parex increased cash flow by a healthy 12% in comparison to 2012, despite a 15% lower netback per barrel and a 4.6% lower average realized sale price per BOE YoY. This healthy growth in cash flow was driven primarily by a massive 39% increase in production. More impressively 2013 was the third successive year where cash flow continued to grow as the chart shows. Source: Company Presentation. This strong cash flow growth has seen Parex turn a significant corner marking a noteworthy achievement with the company's exploration and development plans now effectively being self funding. Reducing the need for the company to increase its debt and level of leverage or dilute existing shareholders through an equity offering to raise capital to sustain exploration and asset development. A forecast 15% to 17% increase in production. Oil prices remaining indexed to Brent, allowing Parex to generate a higher margin than if they were benchmarked to WTI. This is because it is expected Brent will continue to trade at a premium to WTI for the foreseeable future. Higher oil prices with the price for Brent futures due between June 2014 and December 2015 trading at an average of $102 per barrel for that period. As a result 2014 operating cash flow is forecast to grow by around 6% in comparison to 2013, to approximately $285 million. Over the foreseeable future this cash flow will continue to grow primarily because of higher netbacks and further reserves and production growth. A key part of Parex's future success lies in its ability to fund its exploration development program from operating cash flow and its existing working capital. Despite 2014 capital expenditure of $250 million being 6.9% higher than 2013 I expect Parex to be able to fund this capex from cash flow. This is because despite a lower average realized sale price per BOE, rising royalties and operating costs Parex is still generating a healthy netback of $55 per barrel. This netback could rise to as high as $58 per barrel if 2014 operating costs come in at the lower end of guidance. When coupled with the lower end of production guidance of 17,500 gross BOE daily, being 10% higher than 2013 gross daily production Parex should be able to easily fund those capex requirements from cash flow. It has also seen Parex advise the market 2014 capex of $250 million will be self funded from cash flow and may be increased by $30 million to $280 million, if the new play concepts merit appraisal drilling and production facilities. As such boding well for Parex to enter 2015 with a working capital surplus and continue self-funding the capital expenditure required to maintain its exploration and development program so as to build a sustainable production base. All of which bodes particularly well for the company to increase its working capital and enter 2015 with a working capital surplus. Parex over a particularly short time has demonstrated an ability to significantly grow its oil reserves. As at 31 December 2013, Parex had 1P reserves net after royalties of 17.4 million BOE and 2P reserves NAR of 26.8 million BOE. In comparison to 31 December 2012, both Parex's 1P and 2P NAR reserves had just over doubled in value, giving it an impressive CAGR of 55% for 2P reserves since 2010. At the forecast rate of production for 2014, Parex has a reserve life of around 6 years, which is of some concern. But I expect reserves to continue to grow at similar rate to which they have grown historically. This is because the company is diligently focused on growing reserves through the exploration and development its high quality conventional oil acreage in the Llanos Basin. Parex also continues to acquire additional acreage in Colombia in proven oil producing basins. The most recent being its move to diversify its asset base by acquiring a range of unconventional assets in the Llanos and Middle Magdalena basins. Both of these basins have proven production and considerable oil resources in place, which when coupled with a growing internally funded capital program bodes well for further reserves increases. Parex has acquired a substantial acreage base with over 2 million gross acres located in Colombia. The acreage sits across the sub-Andean basins hydrocarbon trend, which is believed to be one of the richest hydrocarbon trends in the world. The trend runs from Trinidad, through Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru as illustrated by the chart, and is estimated to have proven reserves of 48 billion barrels of oil. Source: Pacific Rubiales Presentation. The Colombian hydrocarbon regulator (ANH) estimates the trend holds 30 to 70 billion barrels of prospective oil resources in Colombia alone. Parex holds 19 blocks in the trend in Colombia's Llanos and Middle Magdalena Basins, the details of which are set out below. Source: Company presentation. This considerable resources base is set to deliver some spectacular results for Parex, particularly with all of its exploration, development and producing assets located in the sub-Andean hydrocarbon trend. The likelihood of the success of Parex's exploration and development program is highlighted by its enviable drilling success rate in 2013 of 83%, from a total of 37 gross wells drilled. This is lower than Canacol Energy's (OTCQX:CNNEF) 2013 success rate of 100% but higher than Pacific Rubiales (OTCPK:PEGFF) success rate of 68%. It is likely that Parex will be able to repeat this success in 2014 with it planning to drill 22 gross (14 net) exploration wells with the majority (86%) focused on proven plays in the Llanos basin. The remainder are being drilled to appraise the company's new concept plays in the Middle Magdalena and Llanos Basins. The Llanos basin is located in Eastern Colombia and is the key oil producing basin in the country. It forms part of the sub-Andean basin hydrocarbon trend and is estimated by the ANH to hold somewhere between 4.5 billion and 41 billion barrels of crude. The basin contains 3 main oil bearing stratas, being the Mirador, Baroc and Guadalupe formations, illustrated in the chart of the Llanos basin's geological structure below. Source: The Geological Society of America. The average gravity of the oil produced in the Llanos basin ranges between 29° and 38° API, with the basin responsible for the majority of Colombia's light and medium crude production. Light crude from the Llanos basin is typically used to make the Colombian Vasconia blend and is also an important diluent used to make heavy oil sufficiently liquid to allow transportation by pipeline in Colombia. The majority of Parex's exploration and production assets totaling 16 blocks are located in Llanos basin as the chart below illustrates, where it produces light and medium crude. Source: Company presentation. The company's key exploration and development assets in the Llanos basin are blocks LLA-26, LLA-30, LLA-32, LLA-34, Cabrestero, El Eden, Cebuacan and Los Ocarros highlighted in the chart below. Source: Company presentation. From an exploration perspective blocks LLA-26, Cebucan, LLA-34 and Cabrestero are in the late stages of the exploration lifecycle and approaching exploitation and production. Over the course of 2013, Parex made a number of oil discoveries in the Llanos basin. Both the Tigana-1 and Tigana Sur-1 exploratory wells located in block LLA-34 block encountered potential oil in the upper Mirador, lower Mirador and Guadalupe formations. For 2014 Parex is targeting the drilling of 9 exploration wells on blocks LLA-26, LLA-40, LLA-57 and Cebucan. There are also 2 wells on the Cabrestero block being appraised and prepared for testing and a well being drilled on the LLA-34 block. Another of Parex's initiatives is to expand into unconventional oil plays in Colombia and the Middle Magdalena basin is fast shaping up as one of the hottest unconventional plays in South America. The basis is increasingly being known as Colombia's shale oil sweet spot and is located in central Colombia and highlighted in pink on the map. Source: ANH. The basin has been producing conventional oil since the 1920s, with discovered reserves of 1.9 billion barrels of shallow conventional oil, accounting for 14% of Colombia's total production. It is estimated by the ANH the basin has 79 billion barrels of unconventional Undiscovered Petroleum Initially In Place (UPIIP). The stratigraphic make-up of the Middle Magdalena Valley is highly conducive to the presence of hydrocarbons and is illustrated in the chart below. Source: Dept of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University. Parex is a late arriver to this play, with Canacol having snapped up the majority of the higher quality unconventional acreage in the basin. But this has not deterred Parex which has secured 2 blocks in the basin, VMM-11 and Morpho as shown below. Source: Company presentation. Block VMM-11 is being explored for cold heavy oil production and Parex holds a 60% interest in the block and is the operator. The remaining 40% non-operated interest is held by Pacific Rubiales. Oil has already been discovered in the Morpho Block and this discovery is producing 90 BOE daily with an API of 38° (light crude). Parex has a 100% operating interest in the block and is targeting the development of unconventional light tight oil in the block. In summary Parex's high drilling success rate coupled with quality exploration assets located in known and producing oil basins in one of the world's largest hydrocarbon trends bodes well for ongoing drilling success in 2014 and beyond. As such I expect to see Parex make further discoveries during 2014, which will further boost its reserves, increasing the underlying value of its assets as well as extending the economic life of those reserves. Parex's 2P reserves of 26.8 million BOE NAR as at 31 December 2013 have a NAV of $1.1 billion, which with 109 million common shares issued gives it a 2P NAV of $10.09 per share. With Parex trading at around $8.53 per share at the time of writing this represents a premium of around 18%, making Parex an attractive long-term play for investors based solely on the value of its underlying oil assets. But typically, E&P companies trade at a discount to their 2P NAVs because it represents the perceived risk of these assets being developed and commencing commercially viable production. In the case of Parex this discount can also be attributed to the markets overblown sense of country risk associated with investing in Latam and Colombia in particular. With the Colombian government currently engaged in fruitful peace negotiations with the FARC and a steadily improving security situation coupled with an operating environment conducive to foreign investment much of this country risk is mitigated. As this is recognized by the market this discount will narrow but as I will demonstrate, Parex is also undervalued by the market on the basis of its key valuation metrics and cash flow from production. Despite the solid share price appreciation over the last year, Parex appears attractively priced on a range of key industry specific valuation metrics. This includes an enterprise-value of a mere 3 times EBITDA and an enterprise-value-to-BOEPD of $63,800. All of which compares favorably to its peers operating in Colombia and North America as the chart shows. Parex's EV of 3 times EBITDA is equal to Gran Tierra's and is the lowest among its peers. Like Gran Tierra, Parex's average realized oil price per barrel is indexed to Brent allowing it to generate higher revenue than those peers with their sale price indexed to WTI. This is allowing both Parex and Gran Tierra to generate solid margins and operational profitability, which has yet to be recognized by the market. Parex also has one of the lowest EV-to-BOEPD ratios at $63,800 and this is only marginally higher than Canacol's $62,400 which is the lowest of its peers. Perhaps more importantly for investors is Parex has a low degree of leverage with net debt of 0.7 times cash flow, which one of the lowest ratios among its peers. It is also significantly lower than its peers operating in North America, where companies such as Lightstream and Penn West found themselves overleveraged because of their addiction to debt. This debt was used to fund the acquisition and development of marginal assets as well as maintain unsustainable dividend yields. Overall, Parex's current position in comparison to those companies highlights the benefit of a focused and disciplined approach to asset acquisitions and capital expenditure for the development of those assets. Furthermore, it is clear from these valuation metrics, that Parex is significantly undervalued by the market particularly in comparison to the majority of its peers, especially those operating in North America. But to gain a better feel for Parex's indicative fair value per share I have used an industry standard deterministic DCF valuation methodology. This essentially calculates an O&G E&P company's fair value per share by determining the future value of cash flows derived from the production of its oil reserves at a particularly point in time. It is typically set over a predetermined period, which is typically either 10 years or the economic life of the company's reserves. This is then used with a series of assumptions to calculate total annual cash flows, which are then discounted by 10% to obtain a net-present-value. When calculating Parex's indicative fair value per share using the DCF methodology I have used the assumptions set out in the chart below and have not applied a terminal value as per a traditional DCF model. This conservative valuation yields an NPV-10 of $1.7 billion or 1.6 times Parex's current enterprise-value of $949 million. When net debt of $179 million is deducted it leaves an implied market-cap of $1.5 billion, valuing Parex at $14.01 per share as shown by the chart. At the time of writing Parex is trading at $8.53 per share again highlighting the company is significantly undervalued and offers considerable potential upside of 64%. When the relatively conservative assumptions used are taken into account, it highlights the considerable margin of safety built into this valuation. I expect this potential upside to play-out over the next year as a range of short-term catalysts gain traction and boost Parex's operational performance. Investors should note Parex trades as a liquid listing the Toronto Stock Exchange under the stock code PXT.TO with an average daily trading volume of ~$2 million CAD. Continued production growth: As the production growth chart earlier in the article shows, Parex continues to grow production and/or meet production guidance for the last 5 quarters gaining the market's confidence. If current calendar 2014 guidance is achieved or exceeded and Brent prices remain stable, the shares are almost certain to be bid higher for a 30% to 40% gain. Brent Pricing: With Parex's sale price indexed to Brent it is able to take full advantage of the premium which Brent trades at over WTI. This allows the company to continue generating a solid netback per barrel, which is superior to the majority of its peers, further boosting margins and growing cash flow. Significant growth in reserves: Parex's focused exploration program on proven oil plays and a drilling success rate of 83% bodes well for further oil discoveries in 2014. Any significant oil discovery will have a significant material impact on reserves growth and hence the NAV of the company. Positive results, which I expect to see, would initiate a re-rating of the company and its target share price. Commodity risk: - Parex is leveraged to the price of Brent and if the price of crude falls below $100 per barrel, it would have a material impact on Parex's netback and accordingly its cash flow and valuation. This could see the company unable to continue self-funding its capital program and have to use outside funding. Currency risk: The depreciation of the Colombian peso relative to the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar will impact revenues and profitability. For the year-to-date the COP has softened 8% against the USD. Market risk: Parex is vulnerable to a general market or sector downturn, as we have already witnessed earlier in 2014 with the emerging markets crisis triggered by the significant depreciation of the Argentine peso. Country/geopolitical risk: Parex operates in Colombia, which is an emerging Latam economy. While Colombia has a business environment conducive to foreign investment, particularly in the petroleum industry, there is still has a higher degree of risk than developed jurisdictions. Contract risk: There is a risk Parex's crude purchasing customers may forfeit payment and cause a working capital squeeze. Operational risk: The company may suffer from adverse operational events which can impact reserves, production, cash flow and cash on hand. Such events could also see reserves being downgraded reducing the overall value of Parex's asset base. The company may also not be able to ramp up production as per its historical performance or as per guidance. This would see Parex become dependent on raising capital externally in order to fund its exploration and development capex. Such an event would either weaken the balance sheet if debt were used or potential dilute existing share holders through an equity raising. Despite its recent share price rally over the last year, Parex's shares are still trading in heavily under-valued territory, offering 69% potential upside with a price target of $14 over the next year. There are a range of short-term catalysts coupled with a strong exploration program, growing production and reserves, Brent pricing, an astute management team and a low level of leverage that can only push Parex's share price higher. Disclosure: I am long PARXF, GTE, PEGFF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)Want more from this author? Follow and be the first to know when they publish. Caiman Valores (1,071 followers) Long/short equity, contrarian, long-term horizon, energy(You’ll be notified by email with new articles from your favorite authors. Contact Me We only use your contact details to reply to your request for more information. We do not sell the personal contact data you submit to anyone else. We look forward to contacting you shortly for a conversation. This article was sent to 114 people who get email alerts on . This article was sent to 450,950 people who get the Investing Ideas newsletter. Comments () This article has comments. To read them or add your own, click here. Add your email to get alerts on too: Get email alerts on »This article was sent to 450,950 people who get the Investing Ideas newsletter. 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